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US analyst sees hurdles in Indo-US nuke pact

     Washington: A US analyst on Tuesday expressed concern on Washington's dramatic reversal of decades-old policy, where President Geroge W. Bush said he would ask Congress to change US laws to adjust international rules to allow nuclear trade with India, saying it would encourage other regimes seeking laxity in rules. "I think this is a very significant development because the Bush administration proposes to change the rules of nuclear commerce, at least to make an exception for India. But, when you make an exception for India, other nuclear suppliers are going to want other exceptions for other countries. And the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which tends to operate by consensus, could become a victim of this agreement. In which case then the nuclear future is going to have fewer rules, including fewer rules of nuclear commerce and that's a dangerous thing," Michael Krepon of the Henry L. Stimson Center said. India has upheld nuclear non-proliferation rules and has said will never spread sensitive technology, even as the United States promised to help the South Asian power develop its civilian atomic sector. It has also agreed to accept voluntary commitments to some parts of the non-proliferation regime. Washington had barred providing atomic technology to India because of New Delhi's status as a nuclear power that has refused to sign the NPT, which was designed to halt the spread of nuclear weapons.

      The policy shift, which underscored Washington's recognition of India as a rising power and potential counterweight to China, drew sharp criticism from members of Congress. Some vowed to push legislation to block the change. Proliferation experts raised strong concerns that expanding U.S. cooperation with India would undercut U.S. efforts to press Iran and North Korea from halting their nuclear arms ambitions. Iran denies it is trying to build bombs, while North Korea declared itself a nuclear armed power in February. The agreement goes farther than many expected. It would remove a ban on civilian nuclear technology sales, allowing India to obtain nuclear fuel and advanced reactors from U.S. and other suppliers. In return, New Delhi would allow international inspections and safeguards on its civilian nuclear program and refrain from further weapons testing and transferring arms technology to other countries. Experts agree these are important advances. "Some of the rules require Congressional approval. Other rules require the consensus support of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. I think the Nuclear Suppliers Group is going to be the biggest hurdle, bigger than the Congress. Because, the United States has spent decades devising tough standards and encouraging other countries to agree to them, tough standards of nuclear commerce, which we now propose to get rid of," Krepon said. It could also complicate efforts to pressure Iran and North Korea into forsaking their nuclear arms ambitions. Krepon criticised the Bush administration for "dropping the ball" on terrorism in Pakistan, saying infiltration across the Line of Control continued. "I think the Bush administration is dropping the ball when it comes to terrorism in Pakistan. I think we're dropping the ball in respect to infiltration across the Line of Control. The administration is dropping the ball in respect to the (upswing) in violence within India itself, directed against symbolic targets. This is very bad news. It's bad news for the peace process and the United States needs to be talking to Pakistan about this privately and I'm not sure it is," he said. Krepon termed Singh's visit to the US as successful barring differences over India's aspirations for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. "I think the Indian government has succeeded in getting the Bush administration to endorse its agenda with one significant exemption, which is India's quest for a seat at the high table at the Security Council," Krepon said. "If Japan deserves a seat on the U.N. Security Council, a permanent seat, so (does) India," he added. Indian media has described the nuclear issue as a "touchstone" for U.S. willingness to work with India and accept its growing role on the international stage.

Indo-US nuke pact: Both gains and risks: Washington Post  (Go To Top)
by Smita Prakash

     Washington: The Bush Administration's decision to help India build nuclear plants and import advanced weapons has both potential benefits and risks, claims an editorial appearing in today's Washington Post. According to the editorial, the immediate benefit is that India as an emerging Asian superpower may "serve as an counterweight to China, given that it already has an over billion-strong population and is the world's largest democracy. Secondly, as home to a large and tolerant Muslim population, it can serve as an "ally against Islamic militancy. According to the editorial, closer ties between Washington and New Delhi in practice may have more downs than ups. Though in general, India may constrain China in Asia, it may not support the U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan, "and would probably stand aside in other potential U.S.-China rows that do not affect Indian interests." On issues like terrorism and and economic relations, the Washington Post says cooperation will only take place if it "suits both countries and not otherwise". This cooperation could also be hampered by the limitations inherent in coalition forms of government that seem the norm in India these days, and protectionist approach espoused by the United States in its foreign and economic policies. India may have agreed to abstain from further nuclear tests and to open its nuclear facilities to international inspections, but the Bush Administration could argue that "treaties and protocols don't reliably constrain national behaviour, and are therefore, of limited worth," the editorial states. The other risks forseen are Pakistan's desire to also have such a blessed defacto arrangement on the plea of being both India's immediate neighbour and expressing the fear that the strategic balance could be altered. Should Washington refuse to oblige Islamabad because of its previous nuclear proliferating activities, Pakistan may just use the rebuff to promote an anti-India-cum U.S. nationalism and once again be seen as a nation encouraging militant Islamists, claims the editorial. The Bush Administration's efforts to contain nuclearisation in Iran and North Korea may also suffer as a consequence of this partial cooperationbeing extended to India in the Asian region. Though the plea that it will take with other countries will be that India has never broken its word as far as preventing nuclear proliferation is concerned, while Pakistan has, Washington may just have to face up to the fact that other countries possessing nuclear know-how could extend cooperation to "their own friends," the editorial says. Monday's communique` is only a declaration of intent and the Bush administration will have to use all its powers of persuasiveness "to convince a skeptical audience that the gains far outweigh the risks," the editorial concludes.

Vajpayee misinformed about nuke deal: Manmohan (Go To Top)

     Washington: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh reacted firmly to his predecessor Atal Bihari Vajpayee's criticism of the proposed Indo-US nuclear cooperation deal on Wednesday, when he said that the latter was completely misinformed about the facts surounding it. Interacting with the Indian media here, Dr. Singh said that the separation of civil and military nuclear facilities was in the national interest, and India would benefit from the pact. The Prime Minister's reaction cam shortly after Vajpayee had expressed his concern over the recent Indo-US joint statement on nuclear energy, and warned that despite India making "long-term and specific commitments in the Joint Statement, the US has merely made promises, which it may not be able to see through either the US Congress or its friends in the exclusive nuclear club." "The Bush administration may have recognized India "as a responsible state with advanced nuclear technology", but it is far from recognizing India as a legitimate and responsible nuclear weapons state," Vajpayee had said. The NDA Chairperson further added that by effecting a separation between civil and military nuclear facilities, "India has accepted a crucial provision of future fissile material cut-off treaty even before such an international treaty has been fully negotiated and put into force by other nuclear weapon states."

Indo-US nuke deal fraught with dangers: Vajpayee (Go To Top)

     New Delhi: Expressing concerns over the recent Indo-US joint statement on nuclear energy, former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee has warned that despite India making "long- term and specific commitments in the Joint Statement, the US has merely made promises, which it may not be able to see through either the US Congress or its friends in the exclusive nuclear club." In a statement released here this evening, Vajpayee said, "The Bush administration may have recognized India "as a responsible state with advanced nuclear technology", but it is far from recognizing India as a legitimate and responsible nuclear weapons state," The NDA Chairperson further added that by effecting a separation between civil and military nuclear facilities, "India has accepted a crucial provision of future fissile material cut-off treaty even before such an international treaty has been fully negotiated and put into force by other nuclear weapon states." Vajpayee said that the offer to sign and adhere to an Additional Protocol with respect to civilian nuclear facilities is also fraught with dangers. Such an Additional Protocol will, by its very nature, be more intrusive since it will have to allow international inspectors free access to our nuclear facilities anywhere anytime. He also said that the new arrangement will put restrictions even on research programme, even as Indian nuclear scientists have been allowed all these years to freely carry out research activities without anyone breathing down their necks. Questioning the future of country's thorium research programme, which would give India freedom from nuclear fuel imports and make it self-reliant in nuclear fuel, Vajpayee has asked the Government of India to give an explanation on the issue.

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