NEW DELHI, Feb 16: Russia has begun withdrawing troops from Ukraine border
following President Vladimir Putin's announcement on Tuesday of a partial withdrawal
soon after US President Joe Biden cautioned that the Kremlin would launch an
invasion of its erstwhile Soviet republic on Wednesday, triggering a catastrophic
world war. The Russian Defence Ministry has released a video showing the withdrawal.
There were 130,000 Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders ready for an incursion.
The US has not confirmed any Russian troop withdrawal from Ukraine borders
yet. However, according to reports, some forces were being withdrawn from Crimea,
which was annexed by Russia in 2014. The troops were moved back to bases in
Dagestan and North Ossetia.
Playing cool, Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters in the
Capital of Kyiv, "We and our allies have managed to prevent Russia from any
further escalation. It is already the middle of February, and you see that diplomacy
is continuing to work." He, however, added that Russia's claims of a pullback
need to be verified.
He later tweeted, "On Russian statements regarding withdrawal of some forces
from the Ukrainian border. We in Ukraine have a rule: we don’t believe what
we hear, we believe what we see. If a real withdrawal follows these statements,
we will believe in the beginning of a real de-escalation."
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said still a potential attack by Russia
cannot be ruled out. The reported pullout may not be taken as real deescalation.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson cautioned that Russia is sending "mixed
signals." He said Russian forces are building hospitals for troops at the borders
and that does not indicate de-escalation.
Before the troop pullout announcement, Putin had a meeting in Moscow with German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday. On Monday Scholz met Ukraine's President
Zelensky in Kyiv.
Meanwhile, pro-West Zelensky has developed cold feet. Apprehending a calamitous
war, he has of late started giving indications that Ukraine will not seek NATO
entry. It is speculated that the Russian troop withdrawal announcement was in
response to Zelensky's statement, Russia's main demand for now being a Western
guarantee against Ukraine being taken into the fold of the NATO.
At the same time, Russian parliament passed a legislation on Tuesday calling
for recognition to two regions in Donbas held by pro-Russian rebels as independent
from Ukraine.
Was Putin sending false leads by troop deployment? A former KGB Intelligence
officer, Putin's motive seems beyond the Western Intelligence and media's abilities
to decipher. There are various interpretations. Is he really pulling out?
No way. Biden told reporters on Friday Russia will invade Ukraine on February
16 and the Putin announcement came on February 15. Was Putin giving up? No way.
One other speculation is he may be having a piecemeal approach, winning over
a rebellious separatist-infested Donbas territory to his side, using troop mobilisation
as a pressure tactic.
Now, Ukraine itself looking less concerned of an invasion than the US and European
countries, the standoff is giving way to a melodrama. The disastrous consequences
too are a definite deterrence. US sanctions may damage Russian economy but Europe
will be a bigger loser with oil and gas supplies from the East cut off in the
event of a war, apart from huge losses in terms of life and property. Sections
of US media commented, Putin might have been "bluffing all along,” he wanted
written guarantee against Ukraine joining the NATO and therefore to press for
that he deployed troops along the border.
The story is not over, Biden said a Russian invasion of Ukraine “remains distinctly
possible” despite a partial Russian pullout.
